No-Nonsense Leader Re-elected in Bashkortostan

By Chloe Arnold

Murtaza Rakhimov was comfortably elected president of Bashkortostan for a second term over the weekend. But for the man who dreams of being more popular than Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, it was not the landslide victory he had hoped for.

Opponents took heart from the result, saying the relatively large numbers of voters who boycotted what was widely seen as an unfair election Sunday, showed that dissent against Rakhimov's strong-arm methods is on the increase.

According to the election committee in Bashkortostan, a mostly Moslem semi-autonomous republic at the foot of the Ural Mountains, 70.2 percent of the vote went to Rakhimov, while Rif Kazakkulov, the republic's timber minister, trailed in with just 9 percent. The turnout was high, with 69.8 percent of registered voters making it to polling stations Sunday, easily surpassing the 50 percent needed for the elections to be valid.

But in Ufa, only 53.4 percent of the electorate turned up to ballots, barely half of them voting for the president. Rakhimov received 50.8 percent of the vote and Kazakkulov 8.8 percent, but an unprecedented 34.6 percent voted against both candidates.

Last month, the local election committee barred three of the five presidential candidates from running in the election, saying signatures they had collected for their nomination petitions were falsified. Although two of the candidates successfully appealed their elimination in the Supreme Court in Moscow, the election committee cited further violations and refused to re-register them.

Kazakkulov, on the other hand, is fiercely loyal to the president and has no political experience outside the Timber Ministry. Detractors view his participation in Sunday's elections as a ruse to allow Rakhimov to comply with federal election law. An election is ruled void if there is only one candidate running.

``We intend to appeal the results of this sham election to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation'', said Sergei Fufayev, campaign manager for Alexander Arinin, a State Duma deputy and one of the presidential hopefuls who was thrown off the ballot.

``By our calculations, more than 50 percent of the electorate in Ufa voted against both candidates'', he said. ``But even if we go by the official figures, it is easy to see that many people no longer trust the president''.

Fufayev added that there was a definite sea change in the republic's capital. ``Five years ago, no one would have dared to oppose Rakhimov'', he said. ``But with three candidates kicked off the ballot, they are feeling the weight of Rakhimov's iron hand''.

Sooner rather than later, he warned, there would be repercussions. ``In Ufa, at least, people know these were not real elections'', he said. ``They were a farce. And if earlier these people were simply critical of the regime, now they may actually do something about it''.

But analysts in Moscow were more skeptical. ``It is unlikely that there will be a revolution following the results of this election'', said Nikolai Petrov, an expert in regional politics at the Moscow Carnegie Center.

He added that the situation in Bashkortostan did not differ widely from Tatarstan or Mordovia, semi-autonomous republics within the Russian Federation where leaders with authoritarian traits have free rein because they support the central government.

In the presidential elections in 1996, Bashkortostan voted overwhelmingly for Yeltsin in the second round. Similar results rolled in from the other republics.

``Like those other republics, Bashkortostan has a big and influential leader with whom it is important for the central government to keep good relations'', Petrov said. ``If a leader is strong enough, the center cannot do anything about it. And in most cases, it isn't even trying''.

But he said he was surprised that the number of votes against all candidates was so high in Ufa. ``In light of this, the results do not seem to have been falsified'', he said. ``This may be a sign of at least some formal element of democracy in Bashkortostan''.

16 июня 1998г. The Moscow Times